Research Executive Summary

Conventional bulk silicon based PV cells have been used since the 1960s and have undergone substantial developments, however they are the most costly to manufacture especially in light of the current worldwide silicon shortage. These cells types accounted for more than 83 percent of the market share in 2007. Thin-film PV cells have been evolving since the early 1970s, and organics PV cells since the 1990s and accounted for about 17 percent of the total PV market in 2007, making it one of the fast growing technologies in the whole of the alternative energy sector. These cells are made by directly depositing photoactive material onto a thin substrate, and are therefore much thinner and require less material than conventional PV cells and offer increasing efficiencies. There are several important thin-film PV cell types: amorphous silicon (a-Si); cadmium telluride (CdTe); and copper indium diselenide/copper indium gallium diselenide (CIS / CIGS), and also organic systems. In 2007, NREL demonstrated CIGS PV cells with 19.9 percent efficiency, which is still very far from that reported by University of Delaware researchers for crystalline silicon (42.8 percent), but nonetheless demonstrates the tremendous potential for thin-film PV and its great applicability in many applications.

Key drivers enabling the development and use of organic and thin-film PV cells include government programs, silicon costs and availability.

The current main thin-film PV technologies accounted for about 17 percent of the total PV market in 2007, and this is expected to increase to more than 32 percent (about 4 GW) by 2013. A number of activities being carried out by organizations in the PV sector are helping the development of this emerging market.

The prospects for organic-based PV devices are continuing to improve as development gets closer to commercialization, and an efficiency of 8-10 percent is likely in the foreseeable future. The success of organic and thin-film PVs will depend on their ability to be cost-competitive when compared with existing electrical sources such as rigid PVs and batteries, and with emerging technologies such as fuel cells.

Thin-film PV cells based on crystalline and amorphous silicon, CdTe, and CIGS are in various phases of manufacture, and it is expected that they will achieve the cost reductions needed to compete directly with the other forms of energy. These reductions will become more significant when thin-film technologies are produced directly on building materials such as tiles and bricks.

PV applications can be roughly divided into three categories, those involving: power generation installations, conventional electronics and disposable electronics.

For the large-scale applications of PV in both building installed PV, rural electrification and irrigation pumps projects PV manufacturing costs must be reduced by at least a factor of two. As production costs decline, demand for PV electricity will outstrip system supply.

Leading PV developers along the supply chain have indicated that in both the US and global PV markets that for the last quarter of 2008 and through at least the first half of 2009, there will be softer conditions, which will prevent the rapid growth expected before the credit crunch, and this may even flow over into 2010. This is not due to any lack of technological innovations discussed in this report, but rather stems from a concern over reduced funding and spending levels on solar projects and the effect of the falling oil price - which in turn will make customers think twice about spending their savings on solar energy. That say and done, during in 2009, revenues may pick up due to strong demand for PV. Also, consolidation of the industry during 2009 within the industry will help offset these concerns, and even lead to some reduction in PV module prices. Table E-4 (not display it here) summarizes the latest outlook for the worldwide thin-film PV market by thin-film segment over the next 5 years. The report includes trends broken down by volume and material types.   


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
      Table E-1 Comparison of Organic and Thin-Film PV Cell Technologies
      Table E-2: Activities in the PV Market during 2008
      Table E-3: Best Fit Technology by Application
      Table E-4: Summary of the Thin-Film PV Market by Segment ($ millions)

Chapter 1: Introduction and Methodology
  1.1 Introduction
  1.2 Scope
  1.3 Methodology

Chapter 2: PV Technology and Developer Overview
      Table 2-1: Developer's Technology Positioning

Table 2-1: Developer's Technology Positioning
Segment	Sub-segment	Commercial Company	Start up Company	University, Institute R&D Center

  2.1 Cell principles and operation
    2.1.1 Heterojunction cells
    2.1.2 Ordered heterojunctions
    2.1.3 Multijunctions
      Table 2-2: Technical Challenges Facing Organic PV Cell Development
  2.2 Evolution of thin-film PV
      Figure 2-1: Main PV Cell Efficiencies (1993-2008)
      Table 2-3: Comparison of Main PV Cell Technologies (2008)
      Table 2-4: Technology Developments for PV Efficiencies
    2.2.1 Evolution of organic and DSC PV cells
      Table 2-5: Organic PV Cell Development
      Table 2.6: Advantages of Organic PV Cells
      Table 2-7: DSC Cell Development
    2.2.2 Evolution of silicon thin-film PV cells
      Table 2-8: Thin-Film Silicon PV Cell Development

Chapter 3: Thin-Film PV Materials and Properties: Developer's Positioning
      Table 3-1: Developer's Positioning

Table 3-1: Developer's Positioning
Segment	Sub-segment	Commercial Company	Start up Company	University, Institute R&D Center

  3.1 The growing interest in thin-film PVs
      Figure 3-1: Thin-Film PV Cell Efficiencies (1993-2008)
      Table 3-2: Developer's Current Status

Table 3-2: Developer's Current Status
Segment	Sub-Segment	Commercial Company
		Producing	Production Planning	R&D

  3.2 Thin-film silicon
    3.2.1 Amorphous silicon
      Table 3-3: Amorphous Silicon Thin-film PV Cell Data
      Table 3-4: Amorphous Silicon - Developments
    3.2.2 Nanocrystalline silicon
    3.2.3 Protocrystalline silicon
    3.2.4 Monocrystalline silicon
  3.3 Cadmium telluride thin-films (CdTe)
      Table 3-5: Physical Properties of CdTe Thin-Film PV
      Table 3-6: Thin-Film CdTe PV Technology Developments
  3.4 Chalcopyrite thin-film compounds (CIS, CIGS)
      Table 3-7: CIGS PV Technology Advantages
      Table 3-8: CIGS Cell Efficiency Developments by Substrate
  3.5 Dye-sensitized thin-film cells
    3.5.1 Cells
      Table 3-9: Advantages of Dye-Sensitized Cells
      Figure 3-2: Structure and Operating Principle of a Dye-Sensitized PV Cell
      Table 3-10: DSC PV Technology Developments
      Table 3-11: DSC - Today's Cost Breakdown
    3.5.2 Dye sensitizer materials
      Table 3-12: Comparison of DSC Sensitizers
    3.5.3 Electrolytes
  3.6 Organic PV (OPV) cells
    3.6.1 Cells
    3.6.2 OPV Materials
      3.6.2.1 Conducting polymers
      Table 3-13: Polymer Conductive Coatings - Commercially Available and In-Development
      Figure 3-3: PEDOT Nanofibers
      3.6.2.2 Semiconducting materials
      Table 3-14: Mobilities for Some Common P-Channel Organic Semiconductors
      Table 3-15: Mobilities of Common N-Channel Organic Semiconductors
      3.6.2.3 Transparent conducting materials
      Table 3-16: Transparent Conducting Oxides
  3.7 Nanomaterials
  3.7.1 Carbon nanotubes
      Table 3-17: Carbon Nanotubes For Thin-film PV Cells
    3.7.2 Quantum dots
  3.8 Flexible substrates
      Table 3-18: Vitex Flexible Glass Substrate

Chapter 4: Manufacturing Overview
      Figure 4.1 Process Sequence for Manufacturing Thin-Film Modules

Table 4-1: Developer/Supplier's Positioning
Segment	Sub-segment	Commercial Maker	R&D

  4.1 Main processes for producing thin-film PV cells
      Table 4-1: Developer/Supplier's Positioning
    4.1.1 Gravure printing
      Figure 4-2: Gravure printing process
    4.1.2 Inkjet printing
      Figure 4-3: Ink-jet deposition mechanisms
    4.1.3 Screen printing
      Figure 4-4: Screen printing process
    4.1.4 Other printing methods
      Table 4-2: Comparison of Common Printing Processes
  4.2 Film/device quality and substrate compatibility
  4.3 Economics
      Figure 4-5: Efficiency and Cost Projections for First (I), Second (II), and Third Generation(III) PV Technologies
  4.4 Vacuum deposition
    4.4.1 CIGS manufacture
      Table 4-3: Thin-Film CIGS PV Technology

Table 4-3: Thin-Film CIGS PV Technology
Supplier	Substrate	Manufacturing Process	Back Contact	Front Contact	Efficiency, power and estimated price

    4.4.2 CdTe PV cell manufacture
      Table 4-4: CdTe Thin-film PV Cell Properties
  4.5 Roll-to-roll
      Table 4-5: Manufacturing Processes used for CIGS PV cells
    4.5.1 Konarka
    4.5.2 G24 Innovations
    4.5.3 Nanosolar
      Table 4-6: Thin-Film PV Cell Developments
    4.5.4 Other developments
  4.6 Thin-film on glass
  4.7 Thin-film on flex

Chapter 5: Commercial Applications
      Table 5-1: Best Fit PV Technology by Application
  5.1 Building-integrated power generation
      Table 5-2: Selected Commercial BIPV Systems - by PV Technology
  5.2 Consumer electronics
  5.3 Military
  5.4 Packaging
  5.5 Solar chargers
  5.6 Smart fabrics
  5.7 Space applications

Chapter 6: Worldwide Market outlook
  6.1 Recent activities
      Table 6-1: Activities in the PV Market during 2008
  6.2 Silicon costs
      Table 6-2: Principal Polysilicon Suppliers (2006)
  6.3 Current Status and Future Outlook for Thin-film PV Cells - Global Trends
      for 2007-2013
      Table & Figure 6-3: PV Market Outlook by Production Capacity 2007-2013
      Table & Figure 6-4: Thin-Film PV Production by Capacity (MWp)

Table 6-4: Thin-Film PV Production by Capacity (MWp)
Thin-Film PV Segment	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
a-Si
CdTe
CIGS
DSC
OPV
Total Thin-Film PV Production (MW)

      Table & Figure 6-5: Thin-Film PV Production Capacity by Percentage
      Table & Figure 6-6: Thin-Film PV Revenues by US$M
      Table & Figure 6-7: Thin-Film PV Revenue by Percentage
      Table & Figure 6-8: Thin-Film PV Revenue by Application ($ millions)
      Table & Figure 6-9: Thin-Film PV Revenue by Application as a Percentage

Chapter 7: Ongoing R&D and Development Trends by Product Segment
      Table 7-1: Thin-Film PV Future Trends

Table 7-1: Thin-Film PV Future Trends
Future trend	Drivers	Potential impact

  7.1 Technologies under development
    7.1.1 Spheral crystalline silicon
    7.1.2 Organic PV cells
    7.1.3 Dye sensitized cells
    7.1.4 Third-generation PV cells
  7.2 Potential improvements in conversion efficiencies
    7.2.1 Blends of electron and hole transporting polymers
    7.2.2 High-band-gap semiconducting oxides
    7.2.3 Luminescent concentrators
    7.2.4 Ionic solid electrolyte
    7.2.5 Micro-morph
    7.2.6 Stability of organic materials
  7.3 Materials capable of absorbing a wider range of light wavelengths
  7.4 New materials
    7.4.1 Hybrid organic/inorganic semiconductors
      Table 7-2: Cu2S/CdS Nanocrystal and Thin-film Comparison
    7.4.2 Nanowires
  7.5 Challenges for further development
      Chapter 8: Key Findings in this Report

Chapter 8: Key Findings in this Report
  8.1 Introduction
      Figure 8-1: Main PV Cell Efficiencies (1993-2008)
      Table 8-1: Comparison of Thin-Film and Organic PV Cell Technologies (2008)
  8.2 Evolution and development for thin-film PV cells
    8.2.1 Thin-film silicon
      Table 8-2: Thin-Film Silicon PV Developments
      Table 8-3: Amorphous Silicon PV - Developments
    8.2.2 Cadmium telluride (CdTe)
      Table 8-4: Thin-Film PV CdTe Developments
    8.2.3 CIGS and CIS thin-films
      Table 8-5: Thin-Film CIGS PV Cell Developments
    8.2.4 DSCs
      Table 8-6: DSC PV Developments
    8.2.5 OPV
      Table 8-7: Organic PV Developments
      Table 8-8: Transparent Conducting Material Developments
      Table 8-9: Carbon Nanotubes for Thin-Film PV Cells
  8.3 Manufacturing
    8.3.1 Processes for producing thin-film PV cells
      Table 8-10: Comparison of Conventional Printing Processes
    8.3.2 CIGS manufacture
      Table 8-11: CIGS Thin-Film PV Technology
    8.3.3 CdTe PV cell manufacture
      Table 8-12: CdTe Thin Film PV Cell Properties
    8.3.4 Roll-to-roll processing:
      Table 8-13: Manufacturing Processes used for PV cells
  8.4 Commercial Applications
      Table 8-14: Best Fit Technology by Application
    8.4.1 BIPV
    8.4.2 Consumer electronics
    8.4.3 Military
    8.4.4 Packaging
    8.4.5 Solar chargers
    8.4.6 Smart fabrics
    8.4.7 Space applications
  8.5 Market outlook

Chapter 9: Leading Photovoltaic Material and Cell Suppliers
      Table 9-1: Material Suppliers - by Material Type

Table 9-1: Material Suppliers – by Material Type
Supplier	Location	Materials

      Table 9-2: Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers

Table 9-2: Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers
Supplier	Location	Present PV Capacity MW	2010 - PV Capacity MW

      Table 9-3: CdTe Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers

Table 9-3: CdTe Thin-Film PV Cell Suppliers
Supplier	Location	Present PV Capacity MW	2010 - PV Capacity MW

      Table 9-4: CIGS Thin- Film PV Cell Suppliers

Table 9-4: CIGS Thin- Film PV Cell Suppliers
Supplier	Location	2008 - PV Capacity MW	2010 - PV Capacity MW

      Table 9-5: Dye Sensitized PV Cell Suppliers

Table 9-5: Dye Sensitized PV Cell Suppliers
Supplier	Location	2008 - PV Capacity MW	2010 - PV Capacity MW	Future

      Table 9-6: OPV Material and Cell Developers

  9.1 Commercial Suppliers
     Common Research Item
      -Company HQ Location
      -URL
      -Production Facility Location
      -Founded
      -# Employees
      -Revenue or Financial Status (depending if public or private company)
      -Production Capacity (monthly or yearly)
      -Applications Focus
      -Technology/Product Developed or R&D
      -Commercialization
      -Strategic Alliance
    9.1.1 - 9.1.48 (Total 48 Companies)

  9.2 Research Organizations
     Common Research Item
      -Location
      -URL
      -Description of Technology Innovation
      -Research Target & Trends
      -Application Targeted
      -Strategic Alliance
    9.2.1 - 9.2.25 (Total 25 Research Organizations)

Appendix 1 - Methodology for reporting efficiencies

  

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