Worldwide Home Gateway Market Trends and Outlook
Digital Settop Box & Related VOD, PVR & ITV Services 2002-2005
May 2002
English Version only $2,995.00
19‚T Pages
RESAERCH POINT
How many MSOs have deployed On-Demand, and what are their plans 2002-2004?
Where does "EOD" (Everything On-Demand) fit in?
Where does the "Virtual PVR" (Centralized PVR Storage) fit in?
How fast will cable test or deploy VOD worldwide?
How fast will studios agree on DRM issues now hampering VOD growth?
How fast will digital STB (Settop Box) growth occur in various regions of the world for cable?
Which on-demand approach has the ROI advantage - VOD or PVR?
How much will the PVR impact VOD, ETV and ITV revenues?
How fast, if at all, will media centers replace STBs?
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Overview
Chapter 1 Overview
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1.1 Economic/Industry Developments
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1.1.1 Negatives
1.1.2 Positives
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Chapter 2 VOD & PVR: Competitive or Complimentary?
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2.1.1 Technologies
2.1.1.1 PPV, Near VOD (NVOD) and VOD
2.1.2 Service/Revenue Classifications
2.1.2.1 VOD vs. Subscription VOD (SVOD)
2.1.2.2 VOD vs. Everything On Demand (EOD)
2.1.2.3 ROI analysis for analog STBs, digital STBs, and PVR-equipped STBs
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2.2.1 Standalone
2.2.2 Integrated with Satellite STBs (Receivers)
2.2.3 Integrated with Cable STB
2.2.4 Integrated with PC
2.2.4.1 Analog STBs
2.2.4.2 Small/medium systems
2.2.4.3 Low capital equipment budgets
2.2.5 When does VOD work best?
2.2.5.1 Digital STBs
2.2.5.2 HFC in place
2.2.5.3 Medium/large systems
2.2.6 Capital budgets sufficient for centralized servers
2.2.7 VOD/PVR competition
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2.3 PVR vs. VOD
2.4 PVR vs. NVOD
2.5 PVR vs. SVOD
2.6 VOD/PVR cooperation
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2.6.1 NVOD integrated with PVR = Distributed VOD (DVOD)
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Chapter 3 The Cable TV Industry
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3.1 The Digital Landscape
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3.1.1 HFC upgrade rates and capacity
3.1.2 Digital Penetration and take rates
3.1.3 Market drivers
3.1.4 Market barriers
3.1.5 Regulatory landscape
3.1.6 Competitive landscape
3.1.7 Standards issues
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3.2 The Cable VOD Opportunity
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3.2.1 Trials underway
3.2.2 Current installed base and take rates
3.2.3 Market drivers
3.2.4 Market barriers
3.2.5 Regulatory landscape
3.2.6 Competitive landscape
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Chapter 4 Worldwide Digital Cable Subscribers, Forecast 2002-2005
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4.1 Global drivers of Digital Cable
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4.1.1 Worldwide drivers of Digital Cable
4.1.2 North America and Europe overview
4.1.3 Share of worldwide digital cable markets - Who has it and who's getting it?
4.1.4 Overview of North American and European market overview 2002 - 2005
4.1.5 Latin America/Asia overview
4.1.6 Overview of emerging Digital Cable STB markets: Latin America
4.1.7 Overview of emerging Digital Cable STB markets: Asia
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4.2 Growth within regions by MSO: North American and European Digital Cable subscribers - 2002-2005
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4.2.1 North American Digital Cable subscribers (by MSO)
4.2.2 European Digital Cable subscribers - MSO positioning
4.2.3 Penetration - Europe
4.2.3 Latin American Digital Cable subscribers (by country)
4.2.4 Asian & Australian Digital Cable subscribers
4.2.4.1 China
4.2.4.2 India & Korea
4.2.4.3 Japan & Australia
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Chapter 5 The Digital Cable STB Industry
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5.1 Current market share by manufacturer (Digital Cable STBs)
5.2 Typical Cable STB feature list: 2002, 2003 and 2006
5.3 Worldwide STB Digital Cable STB unit/revenue growth: 2002 - 2005
5.4 Regional STB Digital Cable STB unit/revenue growth: 2002 - 2005
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Chapter 6 The Digital Cable VOD Industry
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6.1 Current market share by vendor
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6.2 Industry VOD streams shipment forecast, 2002-2006
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6.2.1 Worldwide
6.2.2 By region
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6.3 Revenue forecast, 2002-2006
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6.3.1 Worldwide
6.3.2 By region
6.3.5 Table: Worldwide/regional VOD market size 2002-2005
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Chapter 7 The Digital Cable PVR Industry
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Table 7.1: Worldwide/regional cable-related PVR units & revenues - 2005-2005
7.1 Worldwide & regional cable-related PVR unit and revenue
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7.1.1 Worldwide cable-related PVR unit and revenue
7.1.2 Regional cable-related PVR unit and revenue
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7.2 Things a PVR is not.
7.3 MSO ROI scenarios w/VOD & PVR (Models #1-3)
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Chapter 8 Profiles of Representative MSOs
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Financials, Key Partners & Customers, Deployment Plans for Digital STB/VOD/PVR services
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Time Warner Cable
AT&T Broadband
Adelphia Communications Cablevision
Charter Communications
Comcast
Cox Communications
Insight Communications
Mediacom LLC
North America - Canada
Shaw
Rogers
European MSOs (Representative)
Telewest (United Kingdom)
NTL (United Kingdom)
France Telecom (France)
Noos (France)
UPC (Pan-Europe)
Callahan Associates (Pan-Europe)
Ono (Division of Cableuropa) (Spain)
Telenor Avidi (Norway)
Denmark (TDC Kabel/ONCable)
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Chapter 9 Profiles of Suppliers
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Financials, Key Partners & Customers, Target Markets
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Cable STB Suppliers
Motorola, Inc./Broadband Communications Sector (BCS)
Scientific-Atlanta, Inc.
Pace Micro Technology PLC
Pioneer Corporation
Sony Corporation
Panasonic Technologies, Inc.
ADB
VOD Suppliers
Concurrent Computer
DIVA Systems
nCube
SeaChange
PVR/DVR Suppliers
TiVo
Metabyte Networks
Microsoft TV Platform Group
NDS Group
CacheVision, Inc.
Keen Personal Media
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Tables, Illustrations, and Charts
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Table 3.1: Average and Median Numbers of Subscribers per MSO Surveyed
Table 3.2: Percentage of Systems Upgraded to HFC
Chart 3.1: Percentage of Systems Upgraded to HFC
Chart 3.2: Current Bandwidth of HFC Systems
Chart 3.3: Target HFC Bandwidth at 100% Buildout
Chart 3.4: Digital Penetration - Eligible vs. Actual Subscribers
Chart 3.5: Projected Percentage of Eligible Subs Taking Digital Cable
Table 3.3: Total and Average Number of Digital STBs to Installed (End of 2001)
Table 3.4: Average Ratios of Digital STBs to Households
Chart 3.6: Reasons for Consumers to Subscribe to Digital Cable
Chart 3.7: Reasons for Consumers to Reject Digital Cable
Table 3.5: VOD Trials (U.S.)
Chart 3.8: How Long Until MSOs Deploy VOD
Table 3.6: Digital Cable Subscribers per System Vendor
Chart 3.9: VOD Revenue Models
Chart 3.10: Reasons for Consumers to Take VOD Service
Chart 3.11: Reasons for Consumers to Reject VOD
Table 4.1: Typical Digital Service Sequence
Table 4.2: Worldwide Market Size for Digital Cable, Cable, and VOD Potential
Table 4.3: Overview of North America and European Digital Cable and Potential VOD Markets - 2002 - 2005
Chart 4.1: North America vs. Europe Total Digital Cable Subscribers
Chart 4.2: North America vs. Europe Total Cable Subscribers
Chart 4.3: North America vs. Europe New Digital STB Unites Sold (M)
Chart 4.4: North America vs. Europe Installed Base Digital Cable STBs (M)
Chart 4.5: Worldwide VOD Potential Revenue
Chart 4.6: North America vs. Europe Potential VOD Revenue
Table 4.4: Overview of Lat. America/Asia Cable, Digital Cable Markets - 2002 - 2005
Table 4.5: US Digital Cable Subscribers by MSO 2002 - 2005
Table 4.6: Canadian Digital Cable Subscribers by MSO 2002 - 2005
Table 4.7: North American Digital Cable Subscribers - Summary - 2002 - 2005
Table 4.8: European Digital Cable Subscribers 2002 - 2005
Table 4.9: Latin American Digital Cable Subscribers 2002 - 2005
Table 4.10: Asia Digital Cable Subscribers 2002 - 2005
Chart 5.1: Percentage of Digital Cable STBs Installed by Vendor (North America Only)
Chart 5.2: North American Market Share of Digital Cable STB Vendors (including Sony Estimate)
Chart 5.3: Percentage of Digital Cable STBs Installed by Vendor (Worldwide)
Chart 5.4: Percentage of N.A. Digital Cable STB SOM (Vendor Reported)
Table 5.1: Typical Cable STB Features: 2002
Table 5.2: Typical Cable STB Features: 2003
Table 5.3: Typical Cable STB Features: 2006
Table 5.4: Worldwide/Regional Digital Cable STB Unit/Revenues: 2002 - 2005
Chart 6.1: Reasons for MSOs to Select VOD Vendors
Chart 6.2: Percentage of Cable Systems with VOD (End of 2001)
Chart 6.3: Number of Cable Systems with VOD (by Vendors)
Chart 6.4: Market Share of VOD Systems (Hours of Content and 3 Mbps Streams, as Reported by MSOs)
Chart 7.1: Reasons for Consumers to Buy PVRs
Chart 7.2: Reasons for Consumers to Reject PVRs (MSO Viewpoint)
Chart 7.3: Percentage of MSOs Currently Testing or Deploying PVRs
Chart 7.4: Percentage of MSOs Planning to Deploy PVRs
Chart 7.5: When do MSOs Plan to Deploy PVRs?
Chart 7.6: Types of PVRs Being Tested or Deployed by MSOs
Table 7.1: WW/Regional Cable-related PVR Units & Revenues - 2002 - 2005
Table 7.2: Must-Have Features for Basic Combined Digital-Cable PVR/STB (2002 -2004)
Table 7.3: PVR Comparison with Other Products
Table 7.4: ROI Model #1 for VOD for 1000 Streams (10K Subscribers)
Table 7.5: ROI Model #2 for PVR Sold or Leased 10K Units ($350/unit)
Table 7.6: ROI Model #3 for PVR Sold or Leased 10K Units ($250/unit)
Table: United GlobalCom Holdings (as of September 2001)
Table: Liberty Media Holdings (as of September 2001)
Illustration 5.6: Filters for Ads in Client Cache
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