3G mobile is now well established in leading countries in Asia and is being broadly deployed in Europe. These new services offer a broad variety of new services that are moving the 3G mobile carriers from being voice providers to being data and multimedia service providers. This is a quantum leap that will more than overcome the declining revenue from voice services and continue the growth that mobile service providers are experiencing in both subscribers and revenue.
This report examines the strategies of 23 3G service providers globally. It reviews technical and regulatory issues and examines the trend toward network integration. The report analyzes the effect of 3G services on operator's ARPU. A global forecast is provided as well as regional forecasts for Asia, Europe, North America, and the Rest of the World that includes 3G service provider subscriptions and revenue as well as handset shipments.
This report finds that 3G will cause mobile ARPU's to grow in the face of declining voice revenues and that, after 2007, 2G subscribers will begin to decline in numbers as they shift to 3G services. The report points out that the switch to 3G is creating an opportunity for mobile operators to gain market share or for new carriers to establish themselves in the mobile market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Taking Mobile to the Next Level
1.2 Advances in 3G Technology
1.3 Regulatory Landscape
1.4 Incumbents and New Entrants
1.5 Network Convergence
1.6 3G Services and ARPU
1.7 Forecasts
1.8 Conclusions
2. Advances in 3G Technology
2.1 ITU IMT-2000
2.2 WCDMA (UMTS)
2.3 TD-SCDMA
2.4 HSDPA
2.5 CDMA2000
2.6 Super 3G
2.7 Fixed-Mobile Convergence
2.8 Handset Development
3. Regulatory Landscape
3.1 Spectrum Issues
3.1.1 IMT-2000
3.1.2 U.S. Broadband Spectrum
3.2 Asia
3.2.1 Regulation in China
3.2.2 Regulation in Hong Kong
3.2.3 Regulation in India
3.2.4 Regulation in Japan
3.2.5 Regulation in Korea
3.2.6 Regulation in Taiwan
3.3 North America
3.3.1 Regulation in the U.S.
3.3.2 Regulation in Canada
3.4 Europe
3.4.1 Regulation in The European Union
3.4.2 Regulation in Other Countries
3.5 Rest of the World
4. Incumbents and New Entrants
4.1 GPRS, CDMA2000 Ix, and iMode
4.2 3G Prospects
4.3 Asia
4.3.1 H3G-Australia and Hong Kong
4.3.2 Asia Pacific Broadband Wirelss
4.3.3 Chunghwa Telecom - Taiwan
4.3.4 KDDI au-Japan
4.3.5 KTF - Korea
4.3.6 NTT DoCoMo - Japan
4.3.7 SK Telecom - Korea
4.3.8 Telstra - Australia
4.3.9 SmarTone - Hong Kong
4.3.10 Vodafone KK - Japan
4.4 North America
4.4.1 Cingular Wireless
4.4.2 Verizon Wireless
4.4.3 Sprint PCS
4.4.4 Nextel Communications
4.4.5 T-Mobile USA
4.4.6 Bell Canada
4.4.7 Telus Mobility
4.5 Europe
4.5.1 H3G
4.5.2 Vodafone
4.5.3 T-Mobile
4.5.4 Orange
4.5.5 mmO2 (To be renamed O2 in 2005)
4.5.6 Other 3G Operators
4.6 Rest of the World
5. Network Convergence
5.1 What is Network Convergence?
5.2 Introduction to FMC
5.3 Introduction to IMS
5.4 Services
5.4.1 Korea Telecom
5.4.2 BT
5.4.3 North America
6. 3G Services and ARPU
6.1 Service Enablers
6.2 Service Packages
6.2.1 Europe
6.2.2 Asia-Pacific
6.3 ARPU
7. Forecasts
7.1 3G Networks
7.2 Forecast Methodology
7.3 Regional Forecasts
7.3.1 Global Total
7.3.2 Europe
7.3.3 North America
7.3.4 Asia-Pacific
7.3.5 Rest of the World
8. Conclusions and Recommendations
8.1 Conclusions
8.2 Recommendations
8.2.1 Service Providers
8.2.2 Equipment Vendors
8.2.3 Investors
Figure 1-1: Global 3G Monthly ARPU
Figure 1-2: Global Cumulative 3G Subscriptions
Figure 1-3: Global 3G Services Revenue
Figure 1-4: Subscriptions, 2G versus 3G
Figure 2-1: IMT-2000 Standards
Figure 2-2: HSDPA Architecture
Figure 2-3: IMS Architecture
Figure 5-1: Fixed-Mibile Convergence
Figure 5-2: KT One Phone
Figure 5-3: Motorola V3 (Bluephone)
Figure 5-4: Motorola CN620 and H-P iPaq
Figure 6-1: H3G Service Packages
Figure 6-2: Vodafone KK Monthly ARPU
Figure 6-3: Monthly Consumer Data ARPU
Figure 7-1: Global 3G by Technology
Figure 7-2: Global Cumulative 3G by Region
Figure 7-3: Global 3G Devices by Technology
Figure 7-4: Global 3G Devices by Region
Figure 7-5: Global 3G Device Shipments Value
Figure 7-6: Global 3G Revenue, by Service
Figure 7-7: Global 3G Monthly ARPU
Figure 7-8: Global 3G Revenue by Region
Figure 7-9: Europe 3G by Technology
Figure 7-10: Europe 3G Device Shipments Value
Figure 7-11: Europe 3G Service Revenue
Figure 7-12: NA 3G by Technology
Figure 7-13: NA 3G Device Shipments Value
Figure 7-14: 3G Service Revenue
Figure 7-15: Asia-Pacific 3G by Technology
Figure 7-16: Asia-Pacific 3G Device Shipments
Figure 7-17: Asia-Pacific 3G Service Revenue
Figure 7-18: ROW 3G by Technology
Figure 7-19: ROW 3G Device Shipments Value
Figure 7-20: ROW 3G Service Revenue
Table 2-1: CDMA2000 Enhancements
Table 3-1: IMTS Status
Table 3-2: Broadband Radio Spectrum
Table 4-1: Regional Breakdown
Table 4-2: Mobile 2G Deployments by Region
Table 4-3: 2.5G Services
Table 4-4: 3G Data Deployments by Region
Table 4-5: 3G Services
Table 4-6: Asian Service Provider 3G Status
Table 4-7: H3G Financial Position
Table 4-8: H3G Results as of August 31, 2004
Table 4-9: Chunghwa Telecom Financial Position
Table 4-10: KDDI au Financial Position
Table 4-11: KTF Financial Position
Table 4-12: NTT DoCoMo Financial Position
Table 4-13: SK Telecom Financial Position
Table 4-14: Telstra Financial Position
Table 4-15: SmarTone Financial Position
Table 4-16: Vodafone KK Financial Position
Table 4-17: NA 3G Service Provider Status
Table 4-18: Cingular Wireless Financial Position
Table 4-19: Verizon Wireless Financial Position
Table 4-20: VerizonŐs EV-DO Service Availability
Table 4-21: Sprint PCS Financial Position
Table 4-22: Nextel Financial Position
Table 4-23: T-Mobile USA Financial Position
Table 4-24: Bell Canada Financial Position ($US)
Table 4-25: Telus Mobility Financial Position
Table 4-26: European Service Provider 3G
Table 4-27: Vodafone Financial Position
Table 4-28: Vodafone Results September 2004
Table 4-29: T-Mobile Financial Position
Table 4-30: T-Mobile Results September 2004
Table 4-31: Orange Financial Position
Table 4-32: Orange Results June 2004
Table 4-33: mmO2 Financial Position
Table 4-34: Other 3G Operators in Europe
Table 4-35: Other 3G Operators in the ROW
Table 6-1: Mobile Technology Comparison
Table 6-2: File Transfer Times
Table 6-3: H3G Services
Table 6-4: H3G Package Prices - UK
Table 6-5: H3G Package Prices - Hong Kong
Table 7-1: 3G and Other Wireless Standards
Table 7-2: Forecast Model
Table 7-3: Regional Forecasts
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